Quick one for anyone betting football regularly — this is the single biggest leak I see in casual bettors' bankrolls.

The mistake: backing short-priced favorites (1.20-1.40) over and over because they "feel safe." One upset wipes out 4-5 wins of profit. You're risking a lot to win a little, over and over, and the math eventually catches up to you.

What to track instead:

1. Expected goals (xG), not just league table position. A team can be 3rd but generating worse chances than a mid-table side on a hot streak. Table position lags reality by weeks.

2. Rest days between matches. Teams playing their 3rd game in 7 days (especially after European fixtures) are statistically far more likely to underperform their normal form — rotation, fatigue, injuries pile up.

3. Home/away splits, not overall form. A team unbeaten in 10 overall can still be shaky away from home. Always split the sample.

4. Line movement. If the odds are drifting against the favorite in the hours before kickoff, the market usually knows something (team news, weather, etc.) before it's public.

The fix: stop grading bets by whether they won. Grade them by whether the process was sound. A well-reasoned pick that loses is still a good bet. A lucky favorite-parlay that hits is still a bad process — and bad process loses long-term no matter how good today felt.

Bankroll rule of thumb: 1-2% of your bankroll per pick, max. Boring, but it's the difference between a rough month and going broke.

What's everyone's biggest bankroll mistake been so far this season? Curious to hear real examples.